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2007-06-02 | The effects of Tropical Storm Berry will begin to affect the Topsail Island area later this afternoon.

A Flood Watch has been issued for later today and Sunday. A Flood Watch means that there is a potential for the heavy rains expected from TS Berry to flood low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding. According to the National Weather Service, rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches is possible with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches.

TS Berry appears somewhat disorganized this morning. However, winds remain at about 50 MPH. Berry is moving north-northeast at about 20 MPH. An increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. Berry will likely loose its tropical characteristics after making landfall in Florida.

The remnants of Berry will travel northward along the southeastern coast bringing some much-needed rain to the region. Winds will be brisk tonight and tomorrow. the heaviest rainfall amounts are expected east of I-95.

Topsail beaches can also expect coastal flooding, high waves, and dangerous rip currents.

2007-06-01 | George Elliott, meteorologist for WECT in Wilmington, said last week that we needed a tropical system. Not the wind. Just the rain.

It appears he will get his wish.

Tropical Storm Berry, our first tropical system on the very first day of the official Atlantic Hurricane Season, developed quickly in the Gulf this afternoon.

Berry surprised the National Hurricane Center. The low pressure system, labeled a disturbance earlier today, wasn’t expected to strengthen. An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane found that the pressure had dropped to 1000 MB and winds kicking up to 52 knots.

Berry is moving toward the North at about 10 knots and is expected to turn more to the north-northeast and pick up some forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 MPH with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend out 90 miles. No significant is anticipated.

The current track of Berry puts the storm just east of the Topsail Island area on Sunday morning with the center of the track over land. Wind should not be a problem and the system will bring much-needed rain to the region. We could see as much as 3 inches of rainfall from Berry this weekend.

Rip currents will also be a concern. Swimmers are urged to heed rip current warnings and remain out of the water until things settle down. Higher than normal tides can also be expected as we are just getting through a full moon. Tide heights will depend on whether or not Berry arrives at high or low tide times.

You can track Berry and get all the latest information on the storm directly from the National Hurricane Center at www.topsailweather.com.

2007-06-01 | During a disaster, communication is foremost in the minds of local government officials. Town officials at Surf City and Topsail Beach have both implemented new communication and notification systems in an effort to keep residents and business owners informed during a hurricane and possible evacuation.

Surf City Mayor Zander Guy said that the town has made several improvements in how town officials keep citizens, property owners, and business owners informed.

“One of the most important things we can do is make as much information as possible is put out as quickly as possible.” Said Mayor Guy.

Surf City officials have established a “base camp” at the Surf City Food Lion. The base will house a communications center complete with phone banks so the town can keep in contact with folks needing information quickly.

The town also has the capability to communicate directly with residents via an emergency broadcast radio system and a telephone notification system.

The local radio broadcast station was installed last March. It allows town officials to dial in and do a live broadcast. Residents can tune to 1620 on an AM radio to receive the broadcasts.

The telephone alerting system lets the town notify every resident and business owner with a single telephone call. Residents and business owners wishing to subscribe to the telephone notification system must sign up for the service. Surf City residents and business owners can sign up for the service at the town web site at http://surfcity.govoffice.com. Follow the “Mass Notification” link to sign up for the service. There is no charge for the service.

Topsail Beach officials have also implemented the phone notification system in their town. Residents and business owners can sign up on the Topsail Beach web site at http://www.topsailbeach.org.

Notifications from both town systems can also be sent via email.

If an evacuation is called for, Pender County Emergency manager Eddie King recommends that residents and visitors must decide early-on to leave or not.

“If you are going to stay after an evacuation, be prepared to be on your own for a minimum of 72 hours without power.” said Pender County Fire Marshal Charles Newman. “Have enough food, medical supplies, and water, too.”

Both the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and world-famous hurricane expert Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University have predicted an active hurricane season for 2007. Both concur the possibility of 13 to 17 named storms this year with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes and 3 to 5 developing into major hurricanes.

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.” States Dr, Gray in his report issued May 31.

“With expectations for an active season, it is critically important that people who live in East and Gulf coastal areas as well as the Caribbean be prepared,” said Bill Proenza, NOAA National Hurricane Center director. “Now is the time to update your hurricane plan, not when the storm is bearing down on you.”

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30 with peak tropical activity occurring August through October.

2007-06-01 | A low pressure system now over the Florida Peninsula is set to move up the east coast bringing some much needed rain to the Topsail Area. Although the system is not expected to develop into a tropical depression or become a named storm, it will have the potential to bring significant rainfall to the region.

“Visitors will not want to hear this, but we really do need this rain.” Said Joe Ebner of TopsailWeather.com.

The storm will begin affecting the Topsail area around Sunday afternoon with the heaviest rainfall expected Sunday night into Monday. The storm will remain close to the coast delivering much-needed rain. The storm’s impact will not benefit inland counties.

You can track the storm as it moves up the southeast coast via radar at http://topsailweather.com/se_radar_loop.php.

2007-05-31 | World-famous Colorado State University hurricane expert Dr. William Gray released his team’s latest hurricane forecast for the 2007 Atlantic season today.

Dr. Gray and his associates continue to call for an above-average number of named storms with 17 named tropical cyclones of which 9 are expected to develop into hurricanes. Of those 9, Dr. Gray predicts that 5 will become intense hurricanes.

Dr. Gray also states that the probability for at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S coastline is about 74 percent.

These figures remain the same as the earlier forecast released in April.

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is.” States Dr, Gray in his report.

The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) released their predictions for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season earlier this month. Their forecast figures of 13 - 17 named storms, 7 - 10 hurricanes and 3 - 5 major hurricanes is comparable to Dr. Gray’s forecast.

The 1950 - 200 average for tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean is about 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.

The CSU team has been forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season since 1954 with a pretty good track record the past 8 years. The only forecast that was well off-mark was last year’s.

Dr. Gray’s entire report can be read at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/june2007/.

2007-05-30 | Keep your fingers crossed. The Topsail area may be in store for some much-needed rainfall later this weekend or early into next week thanks to a low pressure system that will form over the northwest Caribbean over the next two days.

Although this system is expected to develop into a tropical system, chances of it developing into a strong one are slim. Early indications are that this has the potential of being a good rainmaker.

The system will be pulled north over the Florida peninsula by upper-level winds delivering significant rainfall to that region. Early indications are that the system could possibly reach further north into Georgia and the Carolinas.

The Topsail area could use a good soaking. The last significant rainfall in the area occurred several weeks ago and the region is nearly 10 inches below normal for the year.

All of southeastern North Carolina has been extremely dry and wildfires remain a concern for firefighters and the N.C. Forest Service. The U.S. Drought Monitor has deemed the region as under a “moderate drought”.

2007-05-28 | The lack of any significant rainfall in the Topsail area this spring has prompted weather officials to make official what we’ve known all along. We’re in a drought.

This past week, the U.S. Drought Monitor said Southeastern North Carolina is experiencing “moderate drought conditions”. Previously the area was classified as abnormally dry.

Pender County officials have been urging residents and visitors to exercise extreme caution when doing any burning outside. A burn ban was in effect briefly a few weeks ago, but subtropical storm Andrea brought some much-needed moisture. However, that was 2 weeks ago.

Several nearby counties are reinstating burn bans. The burn ban has not been reinstated in Pender.

A high pressure system sitting in the Atlantic is blocking the development of precipitation. Local soil moisture levels are hovering around 10 to 20 percent. The normal soil moisture should be nearly 50 percent.

Local firefighters and the N.C Forestry Service have been busy with several wildfires in the Hampstead area this month. Wildfires have burned several acres along U.S. 17 between Scotts Hill and Holly Ridge. The Holly Shelter Game Reserve is particularly venerable and firefighters are expressing concern over the area.

Last week, 2 teens were arrested in connection with a 500-plus acre wildfire in the Holly Shelter game Land which so far has cost taxpayers over $105,000 to fight. That fire continues to burn, although the N.C. Forest Service said the fire is under control and is contained to a small area.

2007-05-23 | The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the number and intensity of tropical systems depends on whether or not a La Nina forms in the Pacific Ocean.

“There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Ni�a will form, and if it does how strong it will be,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Ni�a could form in the next one to three months. If La Ni�a develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Ni�a becomes.

For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Ni�o rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen. When storms did develop, steering currents kept most of them over the open water and away from land.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity occurring August through October. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal forecast in August just prior to the historical peak of the season.

2007-05-25 | This weekend marks the official summer season for the Topsail Island area. And, it’s shaping up to be absolutely fantastic.

The official weather forecast for the entire Memorial Day weekend is for continued “Carolina Blue” skies and moderate temperatures. If there is such a thing as a perfect weekend at the beach, this would be it..

A high pressure system toward the east should prevent precipitation throughout the weekend. Visitors to Topsail Island beaches this weekend will surely find beach conditions nearly perfect..

The only hazard weather-wise visitors should be on the lookout for is the increased threat of rip currents along the beaches. The high pressure system responsible for the rainless skies is also responsible for the onshore breezes. These will bring up the seas resulting in a moderate threat of rip currents..

Rip currents are powerful, channeled currents of water flowing away from shore. They typically extend from the shoreline, through the surf zone, and past the line of breaking waves. Swimmers caught in rip currents are often pulled out from the beach and they can result in drowning..

Swimmers and beach-goers should exercise caution when entering the water this weekend and be on alert of the signs of rip currents. Signs are posted at all public beach access points on the island. Inexperienced swimmers and those unfamiliar with the ocean should pay particular attention..

Boaters along the coast should also take note of higher than normal waves.

2007-05-11 | NOAA deployed the first two of eight new hurricane buoys off Puerto Rico in an effort to fill a gap in important weather data coming from warm, storm-generating waters there. Six more hurricane buoys will be placed in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean before the hurricane season ends in November.

These buoys measure wind, wave, barometric pressure, and air and sea temperatures to determine hurricane formation or dissipation, extent of wind circulation, maximum intensity and center location. Hurricane buoys provide year-round data for analysis and forecasts of other marine disturbances but are more robust than other weather buoys because they contain an internal back-up system.

�We are in a period of an active hurricane cycle and this deployment equips our forecasters with an additional tool to track hurricanes and support our mission of saving lives and livelihoods,� said retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

�The need for buoys is fueled by the recognition that there is only one way to really know the weather at sea�by being there,� states Paul Moersdorf, Ph.D., director of the NOAA National Data Buoy Center.

Beyond the six forthcoming hurricane buoys, the NOAA National Data Buoy Center is funded to deploy another weather buoy for Alaska and 11 new tsunami stations between now and March 2008.